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The Impact of Close Races on Electoral College and Popular Vote Conflicts in US Presidential Elections

The Impact of Close Races on Electoral College and Popular Vote Conflicts in US Presidential Elections

In two of the past five United States Presidential elections, the winner of the national Popular Vote has lost the Electoral College. It can be contended that this dynamic is essentially lightning striking twice in the same place, and that future conflicts between the Electoral College and the Popular Vote are unlikely. However, by simulating future Presidential elections based on current trends, we discover very different results. We determine that if we continue to see close Presidential races, over 30% of elections in the next century are likely to select a President against the will of the majority of voters. As Presidential elections have been getting closer, the probability of an Electoral College / Popular Vote (“EC/PV”) clash has been rising -- this trend is likely to continue. Therefore, unless the electorate becomes less polarized and less lopsided, EC/PV splits will become an ongoing, frequent occurrence in Presidential elections…