Voters readily understand the ballot: A national poll with overweighting in Florida conducted in late February makes this clear. The ballot remains the same as the current ballot, but asks one simple, additional question: does the citizen want her vote to count for the winner of the national popular vote if her choice for president doesn’t earn the most votes nationwide.
The reform can go into effect immediately without any other state taking action: The benefit of allowing individual citizens to cast their votes in a manner that more accurately reflects their election priorities is desirable in itself. In addition, if one state adopts it, it may appeal to citizens in other states and may motivate other states to adopt a similar system. This is how the trail-blazing, national popular vote interstate compact got started in 2007.
States can also adopt the voter choice ballot in contingent legislation, which would go into effect when another state that voted for the candidate of a different party in the previous election adopts reciprocal legislation (the “paired” approach): If only Minnesota and Pennsylvania, for example, paired up in adopting the ballot, both parties would be forced to campaign to win the national popular vote, with Republican leaders and voters endorsing the compact and supporting broad adoption of the ballot. As these arrangements grow in numbers, they would cause a shift from campaigns focused predominately on 5 to 10 swing states with only 20% of the country’s population to campaigns and choice of candidates who are responsive to the nationwide electorate with its far greater geographic and demographic diversity (see Hypothesis: The Ballot and the Republican Party, MEVC Blog here.)
The ballot proposal can be effective in time for the 2024 presidential election: Depending on the states that adopt the proposal in the next four years, it could affect the nature of the campaign in 2024 and whom primary voters and parties might nominate. By becoming effective in only a few states by 2024, every vote across the country would count and count equally.
Adopting the ballot proposal in even one or two states by 2024 can also pave the way for further reforms in 2028 and beyond: It could have the effect of (a) more states adopting it between 2024 and 2028, (b) enough states adopting the compact and its overcoming Congressional and state and federal judicial challenges to become effective for the 2028 election, and (c) leading to the ultimate solution of a constitutional amendment.
If one state repeals its voter choice ballot system, no other state’s voter choice ballot system would automatically become ineffective, except in paired state arrangements: Even under that scenario, the remaining state would not have to abandon the voter choice ballot. It could seek another state to fill the vacancy or repeal its requirement for another state to pair with it.
The voter choice ballot is less vulnerable to a state’s withdrawing from a pairing arrangement shortly before an election and less vulnerable to repeal when control of a state government shifts to a different party: Volatility in a state’s basic election process undesirably creates uncertainty and confusion.
The voter choice ballot is not aligned with any party; it enhances the opportunity of individual citizens to vote in accord with what they believe is best for their country, taking into account the circumstances of each presidential election: Their state’s legislature is not in charge; nor are legislatures in other states. Many citizens will appreciate the opportunity the voter choice ballot provides them with, even though they may not take advantage of it in every election or hardly any election.
There are no constitutional or other litigation risks: The ballot proposal cannot be held up because of questions about whether it requires Congressional approval. Section II, Article 1 of the Constitution gives full responsibility to the states to conduct presidential elections as they desire.
There may never be a better time than after this fall’s election to reform our increasingly dangerous presidential election system: Regardless of the election’s outcome, members of both parties will be strongly motivated to adopt reforms. The healthiest, least divisive, least polarizing, quickest and most lasting way to advance reform is if members of both parties in a single state or two or more states with different party allegiances contingently adopt the ballot proposal and thereby enhance the prospects of the compact’s becoming effective and even of a Constitutional amendment that replaces the electoral college system with a system where the candidate who earns the most votes nationwide becomes President.
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Especially over the past two months, strong momentum has built in support of presidential election reform even, through less visibly, in Republican quarters. There is also an emerging consensus that the path to achieving needed reform must be collaborative – open to new perspectives, new strategies and new ideas. And finally there is a growing recognition that beginning in 2021 the reform movement must launch a broad and urgent action plan to seize this most auspicious point in recent history to achieve a goal that a clear and strong majority of Americans of all demographics has long endorsed.
After the elections this November, both parties will assess its implications for the future. At this point they should come to understand that, to win the presidency, they must appeal to enough voters to win the national popular vote. Because this conviction will wane over time, reform efforts in as many states as possible must be launched as soon as possible.