Change this system

According to this article, the president has an increasingly good chance of winning the electoral college -- from which no one has ever graduated, given that there are no professors, students or courses -- while getting absolutely whacked in the national popular vote.

Longtime readers of this blog will note that you read this prediction here more than a year ago.

President Trump, very roughly, has a one-third chance of winning the currently irrelevant national popular vote and a two-thirds chance of winning the electoral vote.

Given the likely turnout and the ceiling on his popularity (or continuing unpopularity among most voters), he will lose the national vote by somewhere between four and eight million.

The reason is that he has chosen to govern in nearly scientific congruence with his 2016 electoral result. He never saw any reason to move to the middle. His view from day one of his presidency was clear: as long as the national vote doesn't matter --as long as the views of most Americans are irrelevant -- then the key to re-election was to mirror the preferences of the swing state voters, even though these would be quite a bit different than the wishes of most people and especially inconsistent with the desired future of young people.

Trump has no self-evident reason to care much about young people. At his age, it is unreasonable to think that millennials will have a meaningful share of the nation's wealth in his lifetime. Indeed, actuarially speaking, he is not likely to know how high global warming will drive the waves against Manhattan. From an electoral perspective he has even less reason to pay attention to the younger voters. They are not determinative of the outcome in Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are the three key steps toward his 270 electors.

The question, however, is this: wouldn't his party be better off if its leader tried to win the national popular vote?

p.s.

If Mayor Bloomberg had taken what's he's already spent on advertising his own presidential campaign and funded ballot measures to give voters a chance to choose the national winner, then such measures might already have succeeded in enough states to make it necessary for the president to win the national vote. Maybe political reporters could ask him why he didn't do that, or even if he knows this was a possibility.

p.p.s.

If I had a billion or two billion, not to mention 57 billion, dollars, I'd fund the ballot and legislative campaigns that would make America a real democracy. What a legacy that would be! But what am I talking about? It would take only about $50 million. Too rich for me but pretty cheap for those who have dined out on the big run-up in equity values over the last decade.


Presidential election reform is on the move. Want to keep up?

 

Electoral College system makes swing state unemployment rate critical to outcome

This chart shows that in swing states rising unemployment correlates with increased voter turnout.

So the generally benign employment statistics in 2016 probably reduced turnout in the swing states, and that in turn hurt the Democrats.

Thanks, Obama! I mean his recovery package, delayed and attenuated, produced a good economy...sadly for him not well-timed for the campaign of his desired successor.

Does anyone think that unemployment trends in a few states should determine who wins the presidency?

Source: BCA Research

Source: BCA Research


Presidential election reform is on the move. Want to keep up?

 

Listen to MEVC Board Member James Glassman discuss the National Popular Vote

James Glassman, a Republican member of Making Every Vote Count’s board who served in the George W. Bush administration, went on the RealClearPolitics podcast to discuss the problems with the Electoral College and what can be done to reform the system.

Listen here beginning at 22:40.


Presidential election reform is on the move. Want to keep up?

 

If they wanted to win a national mandate, then they could play the game that way

If the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees wanted to win a national mandate, it’s obvious that they would have to win a national popular vote plurality.

In every country, the head of government seeks a national victory. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, elected on perhaps the narrowest base of voters in any country, is trying for a bigger mandate and clear voter support of Brexit at this moment.

Even in totalitarian systems like Russia the leader wants to proclaim a national victory. Vladimir Putin obtained, he said, 77% of the national vote when he won his fourth term (second consecutive) in March 2018.

The nominees of the two major, national parties surely understand that a national mandate would give them much more political capital than is obtained by losing the national vote yet still claiming the presidency by dint of having won by a few thousand votes in, say, Wisconsin and Omaha, and squeaking to a total of 270 electors.

As players in a game, the two major nominees have an option to change the rules for winning. They can agree that they will instruct their electors to vote for the national vote winner. Then they have to demonstrate they are serious by campaigning everywhere, seeking every vote they can get regardless of geography.

In order to ensure that neither backtracks on the agreement, the two parties can have their electors swear a written and publicly videoed oath to vote for the national popular vote winner.



After 2020, the electoral deluge

What about after the 2020 election? The Republican Party is likely to gain a greater advantage in the Electoral College due to the 2020 census than it already has. As the map below shows, the Democrats are likely to lose net five or six electors from states where they typically carry the plurality. These are RI, NY (2), PA, MI, IL, MN (?), CA (?), offset by gains of one elector in OR and CO. That is a swing of 10 or 12 electors in favor of the Republicans. Some think the Republican Party after what we presume is Donald Trump's last election (who knows for sure?) will then want to support the national popular vote. Those with this point of view have to explain why this party's professionals, donors, and future candidates will want to relinquish the electoral advantage. 

It can be argued of course that the plurality will shift toward the Democrats in FL, TX, and AZ, but that sort of speculation assumes a blue wave washes over the national political landscape. It might be true of course. That is what Stan Greenberg thinks. But why would that cause professional Republicans to support the national vote as the way to choose the president? The answer might be that the party survives the possible blue wave by compromising on various divisive issues; by changing its positions to reflect the changing preferences and demographics of the country. On the other hand, if the parties remain approximately in the same position on the issues after 2020, then the Republicans will continue to believe that with their current views, so vividly presented by the president, they will probably carry FL, TX, and AZ, and that the electoral gains of these states will accrue to the advantage of their party. 



The Mayor's Possible Strategy & the National Popular Vote

New entrant Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg is going to skip the early caucus and primary states. These are the relatively low population states where free media makes much of the candidates, financing has less impact due to the low prices and limited market for paid advertising, and hence reporters plus a few thousand voters have great influence on who the Democratic Party nominates for president. They are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. For a self-funded entrant who could pay for the entire primary and general election campaign out of his own extraordinarily deep pocket but who does not have obvious magnetic appeal to voters in these four states, it makes a great deal of sense to focus entirely on the big states that vote soon after the early little ones. 

The four earlies have about 4% of the delegates (193 as I decipher the opaque and labyrinthine system) out of the nearly 5,000 delegates to the Democratic nominating convention. By comparison, California (495), New York (319), Texas (262), Florida (248), Pennsylvania (210) account in the aggregate for about one-third of the delegates.

 The Democrats do not have winner-take-all primaries. Delegates are awarded proportionally to the votes (whether primary or caucus), but a candidate needs 15% of votes to get any delegates. (Experts in this field should correct me. The system changes between every election and may even be changed now for all I know.) Furthermore, a state is awarded delegates roughly half due to its number of electors (perpetuating the inequitable allocation of electors in the Constitutional) and half due to the number of Democratic votes in the last election (which gives weight to the importance of the party in the state but also counts the surplus votes that make no difference in the election of the president). The net of this system is that it does not reflect how a Democrat will win the electoral college. If the party wanted to prioritize winning the election, all delegates to the convention would come from swing states. The forty states sure to be ignored in the general election would revolt at this prospect. So they demand a role in picking the nominee, after which they play scant meaningful role in the election of the president. 

At any rate, the mayor understands well that his bottomless pockets give him a huge advantage in campaigning in the big states where paid media will play an enormous role in affecting voter preference. In his victorious campaign for a third term as mayor of New York in 2009, he spent $174 a vote.

In 2008 Barack Obama won a little less than 18 million votes in the caucuses and primaries (the actual count depends on how you treat the caucus results). He edged out Hillary Clinton by only .1 to .4% of the national popular vote, which of course was irrelevant. (If the national popular vote chose the president in the general election, then at least one party probably would use a national popular vote to choose the president, although it might still stagger the voting through different states over a few months.)  If Bloomberg spent, say, $200 a vote to win, say, 20 million votes in the nominating process, the total cost would be $4 billion. That breathtaking sum is only 7% of his estimated fortune, and besides he has promised to give away half his wealth upon death, so why he should not spend the $4 billion now to make a mark on history escapes me. (Some also believe that people in their 70s do realize that they cannot take the money with them to whatever may or may not follow this life.) That amount is, moreover, about the same as the total amount of money both parties will spend on choosing the president between now and November 2020. So it is neither impossible to imagine Bloomberg dipping that deep into his fortune nor inconceivable that the system could absorb that much spending. 

But, you might say, he wouldn't be able to get 20 million votes, even with $4 billion in spending. Perhaps. However, he could spend less, get fewer votes, and still either emerge as the nominee or play the queen/kingmaker role in choosing the nominee. If he won a third of the delegates in just the five big states I mentioned above, then he would have a block of 10% of the total number of delegates. Surely he could get some delegates elsewhere as well. The superdelegates account for about 15% of the total at the convention. Bloomberg's 10% plus and the superdelegates together very likely would be able to block the nomination of anyone who the polls showed could probably not win the electoral college vote against the Republican nominee. Then the delegates at the convention would enter into quite a free-for-all in picking the nominee. This is called a brokered convention. Bloomberg's willingness to spend what it takes to get what some bumper stickers call "any functioning adult" into the presidency could lead to this event.  

All of this results from the electoral college. No one doubts that the president will lose the national popular vote. He has never obtained 50% or more approval from the American people. To be this unpopular and still have a reasonable path to reelection is unheard of, absurd, and totally a function of an archaic and ridiculous method of picking the national chief executive. If the national popular vote chose the president, then it would follow that the Democratic Party would nominate its candidate in a manner that matched up with winning the national vote -- probably incorporating ranked choice voting in the process so as to produce the nominee most likely to win the most votes in the general election. But instead we have the current wacky system and odd scenarios stem from it.


Polls show that Trump could lose the national popular vote by 10 million votes and still win the Electoral College


Legal Challenges to the Compact, Ballot Measures, Other Electoral Reforms

Political cases – no one should be shocked – do go to the Supreme Court from time to time. In these cases, the facts matter as much or more than theory. I’ve been a litigation attorney for decades, I’ve often been a client in litigation, and I’ve sometimes been a judge. So my view comes from experience. That can be inferior to theory. But not always.

Bush v. Gore certainly was a political case. Perhaps it was the most political case ever decided by the Supreme Court.

Suppose its facts had been different. Imagine that George Bush had won the popular vote by a half million but had lost the electoral vote based on the first vote count in Florida. Suppose further that his brother the governor of Florida and the Republican legislature of Florida had aggressively pursued a recount in a couple of key counties. Would the Supreme Court have ended the recount?

 Or imagine that Al Gore had won the popular vote by three million as did Hillary Clinton. And imagine further that the electoral result turned on 500 votes in each of Florida, New Hampshire and Tennessee. Would the Supreme Court have stopped the recounts in all three states?

I think the case would have come out differently with different facts.

If you agree with this assertion – if you think it might be true – then you would also agree that the various legal challenges to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would be less likely to succeed if the following facts were clear:

  • Not just 270 electors were bound to the Compact, but instead more than 300 were committed

  • The big majority of electors bound to the Compact reflected the enactment of this law in swing and red states

  • A big majority of Americans told pollsters that they understood and approved of the Compact

  • Some leading Republican elected official supported the Compact

  • In some swing and/or red states the voters chose the Compact as a measure on the ballot


Defining the Problem

What is the essential, core, most important problem with the Electoral College system?

Here are some answers that I do not think are accurate:

  • The votes in every state are not counted equally in choosing the national leader

  • The votes in low population states have greater weight in choosing electors and this is unfair to voters in high population states

  • The candidates only visit swing states

These are true statements. But the core problem is that the system does not oblige the parties to compete for every vote in every state; instead, they can take the outcome for granted in at least 40 if not more states. More than 80% of voters and citizens live in the land of the ignored.

In the 40 or so taken-for-granted states the parties do not work as hard as they could to register voters, get out the vote, promote access to polling places, lobby for voting by mail, fight for ex-felons to vote, or take any of the other steps that would promote participation in the election. Citizens see that the system does not seek their votes and that their votes do not matter. So millions of people do not participate in the general election.  The total number of non-participants ranges between 15 and 70 million.

Voting is an important act in the creation of a common culture, a widespread sharing of beliefs and values. A system that does not seek to involve tens of millions of citizens is inclined to derogate the importance of those people and to breed in them a sense of resentment toward the rest of society.

Furthermore, an executive whose victory depends on a bare plurality of a handful of states – the current situation – has much less incentive to govern in response to the wishes of the majority of citizens. Not only in a democracy, but in any form of government, both fairness and utilitarianism dictate that government should aspire to serve the interests of most citizens. A method of choosing the president that requires the aspirants to appeal to most people is much more likely to produce solutions to collective problems – like how to address climate change or pay for public goods like education and transportation or provide health care insurance.

So non-participation and non-responsive government are the two aspects of the core problem with the Electoral College system.

Suppose that there were many more than a handful of swing states. Let us imagine that the top 10 states in population, with more than 50% of citizens in aggregate, were all swing states. Then the parties would have to seek every vote in these populous states. It would still be true that small population state voters picked more electors per resident than would be the case in the populous states. But if participation went up 10 to 30 million, concern about inequality of voting power between small population states and big population states would not be so terribly important.

The problem with the system in this century is that now and in the future states with most people are not contested.


MEVC CEO Reed Hundt Speaks at Harvard Conference on Electoral College

From the Harvard Gazette:

Reed Hundt, chairman and CEO of Making Every Vote Count, said the current system “has excluded most Americans from full participation in the choice of a president. It has skewed the parties’ policies and popular bases in ways that have exacerbated social divisions [and is] racist and sexist in its effects.”

The compact “would force the parties to compete everywhere for every vote,” added Hundt, the former chairman of the Federal Communications Commission.



The Way We Choose the President: The System Promotes Social Division and Despair – and it is not difficult to fix

Remarks delivered orally at Harvard Law School, October 19, 2019

The Electoral College system – I mean not only the words in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution that say state constitutions and laws determine the selection of electors, but the web of state laws and political party practices that define how the United States picks presidents – contributes mightily to the worst ills of the American democracy.

This system causes the two major parties pay little to no attention to more than 80% of the voters, located in 40 or more states, during the general election for president.

The system creates irresistible incentives for the two major parties to divide the nation regionally and demographically by appealing to race, gender, and ethnicity as the markers of party affiliation.

The system does nothing to force the two parties and their leaders to compromise on solutions to collective problems that a huge majority of people want and desperately need.

 The system opens the door for dangerously unqualified people to become president without winning a majority or plurality of support from citizens.

A huge majority of Americans prefer a system in which the presidential candidates in the general election seek everyone’s vote and the one who gets the most always becomes president – but a small number of elected officials in a small number of states block that desire from being reflected in changes in state law.

The system was conceived in the sin of slavery and has always thwarted progress toward democracy. In our time its particular evils put the survival of the Republic at risk by leading an increasing number of Americans to give up on our system of government while tolerating authoritarianism to a degree unprecedented in our history.

And despite the well-examined complexities to altering anything in the Constitution, there are numerous practical ways to improve this system.

The starting point is to define the essence of the problem.  

The bad, radical attribute of the existing presidential election system is not that it allocates electors in a way that is not proportional to the population. The principle of equality across all voters in all states entrances many theorists who would like one person-one vote on a national level to become the defining characteristic of selecting the national executive. This concern elevates the ideal over the practical. Unquestionably, the current system gives a voter in thinly populated Wyoming more influence in choosing the president than a voter in big-as-a-country California or previously-a-country Texas. But really so what? This factor does not cause anyone involved in the general presidential election or in any White House to pay unusual, or probably any, attention to voters in Wyoming in comparison to voters in other states. It is not the reason that Republicans give short shrift to California and Democrats for their part write off Texas in the general election.

The problem instead is the winner-take-all method that exists in all states except Nebraska and Maine. The other 48 states and the District of Columbia award all electors to the plurality winner. Because the outcome is predictable in more than 40 states, this system causes the two major parties to take for granted and ignore in the general election the voters in states with more than 80% of the population. Instead, states that randomly happen to be closely divided by party preference decide the outcome.

Napoleon said that if you want to understand people, you must see the world the way they saw it when they were 20 years old. I was 20 in 1968, and in that year Richard Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey (George Wallace finished third) by about a half-million votes in the irrelevant national contest, but smashed him the electoral count by 301 against 191.

The election felt like a national contest. The two major party candidates competed closely in states as far flung as Alaska and Delaware, California and New Jersey. True, a majority of voters were taken more or less for granted, but the number of electors in states that were close-run affairs totaled 223, 41% of the total. Here’s the list:

States where margin of victory was less than 5 percentage points (223 electoral votes):

  1. Missouri, 1.13%

  2. Texas, 1.27%

  3. Maryland, 1.64%

  4. Washington, 2.11%

  5. New Jersey, 2.13%

  6. Ohio, 2.28%

  7. Alaska, 2.64%

  8. Illinois, 2.92% (tipping point state)

  9. California, 3.08%

  10. Delaware, 3.51%

  11. Pennsylvania, 3.57%

  12. Wisconsin, 3.62%

  13. Tennessee, 3.83%

In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by about three million votes in the purposeless national count, but lost the electoral count by 304 to 227. But this election never felt national. Even while the saturating media reached everyone with seemingly minute-by-minute news, the general election resembled a report on Big Ten football contests.

The two campaigns fought to margins of less than 5% in about the same number of states as in 1968, 11 plus the Omaha district, but these had only 133 electors, 90 less than in 1968. Instead of composing more than 40% of electors, the swing states were just less than 25%. Moreover, 56 of these 133 were in the Great Lakes states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. These Midwestern states, with their older, whiter, and more evangelical Christian populations than the rest of the country, were the decisive battlegrounds.

States where the margin of victory was under 1% (50 electoral votes; 46 won by Trump, 4 by Clinton):

  1. Michigan, 0.23% – 16

  2. New Hampshire, 0.37% – 4

  3. Pennsylvania, 0.72% – 20 (tipping point state, including 2 faithless GOP electors)

  4. Wisconsin, 0.77% – 10 (tipping point state, excluding the 2 faithless GOP electors)

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (83 electoral votes; 56 won by Trump, 27 by Clinton):

  1. Florida, 1.20% – 29

  2. Minnesota, 1.52% – 10

  3. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, 2.24% – 1

  4. Nevada, 2.42% – 6

  5. Maine, 2.96% – 2

  6. Arizona, 3.55% – 11

  7. North Carolina, 3.66% – 15

  8. Colorado, 4.91% – 9

Indeed, this chart exaggerates the number of states that were seriously in play during the two months of the campaign. A more practically accurate count would be only six, the ones where the result was a margin under two percent: States with a population of less than 60 million, less than 18% of the national total.

In 1958 Isaac Asimov wrote a short story called “Franchise,” in which Norman Muller of Bloomington, Indiana is determined to be ideally representative of the entire populace. As “Citizen of the Year” he answers questions put to him by a computer that in turn selects the chief executive that the data suggested likely best to serve the nation. Asimov set this story fifty years into the future, 2008. What we have now is not as good a system, because the battleground state populaces are not a representative sample. Here is a polling project that tracks swing voter attitudes – unnecessary if the national vote dictated the outcome of the election.(In addition, according to current polling, most Americans do not believe the current chief executive is the best person to hold the presidency.) 

Asimov wrote the story to warn of the danger that computerization would supplant democracy as the American way of choosing leaders. Instead, demography has created a situation where computerization enables both parties to exclude most Americans from meaningful participation in democracy.

What has happened in the half-century between 1968 and now is that Americans have steadily moved to concentrate in a small number of states. In part because people have chosen to live where they find like-minded citizens, most of the heavily populated states are politically dominated by a single party.

Here is a list of the top ten most populated states in the country:

  1. California (Population: 39,747,267)

  2. Texas (Population: 29,087,070)

  3. Florida (Population: 21,646,155)

  4. New York (Population: 19,491,339)

  5. Pennsylvania (Population: 12,813,969)

  6. Illinois (Population: 12,700,381)

  7. Ohio (Population: 11,718,568)

  8. Georgia (Population: 10,627,767)

  9. North Carolina (Population: 10,497,741)

  10. Michigan (Population: 10,020,472)

In the meantime, the low-growth states are also typically dominated by a single party. One reason is that they each have small numbers of electors, and the runner-up party has a very low probability of prevailing in a winner-take-all contest for electors. The game is not worth the candle for the Republican Party in Vermont or the Democratic Party in Oklahoma in the general election. So each lets the other win without making much effort to achieve balance.

The combination of urbanization-suburbanization in a few states and party dominance in most inevitably is the reduction in the number of swing state electors. It’s important to note the number of swing states has oscillated around a dozen over the last fifty years, but the number of electors (and hence population) in these states has fallen significantly. Therefore the composition of the battlegrounds in reality and appearance does not give us an election that involves enough voters.

Admittedly, the winner-take-all system has always caused the major political parties to ignore huge swathes of voters. However, in the case of big wins, like Barack Obama in 2008, or true landslides like Reagan in 1984 the fact that the parties pay no attention to most voters is not noticed. But in any reasonably close election, the left-out problem is inescapably obvious. Moreover, the problem is much worse in current times.

 In 2020 Donald Trump will probably lose the national popular vote as he did in 2016. Current polls suggest he will run behind the Democratic nominee by five to eight million in the pointless national tally. But he has a good chance of winning in the Electoral College by choosing the hop skip and jump strategy that gave him the 2016 victory.

His strategy will be to count on, and take for granted, the typically reliable Republican base of 230 electors, hop to a Florida win of 29 electors, skip to a Wisconsin victory for 10, and jump to prevail in Omaha for a single elector that produces the necessary 270.

The president presumably targeted Joe Biden for defeat in the Democratic primaries because he thinks Biden would win Wisconsin whereas he believes he can defeat Elizabeth Warren or another nominee in Wisconsin. This explains the Ukraine story.

Demographics is destiny. Americans are not about to flee urban and suburban precincts and head to the emptying states. The Internet produced the death of distance but social networks, business opportunity and industry concentration have greatly enhanced the magnetism of a small number of geographic locations. As this next map shows, the economically big states are like big countries, and the rest are of comparatively negligible size. Wyoming’s economy is on par with Tunisia, and neither is about to get big.

Whether the topic is democracy in the United States or a world order, attention must be paid to forgotten people. The current electoral system, like international governance, does not solve that problem. On a comparative basis, most states are small in population and economic opportunity, and the election system causes not only these small states but also most of the big states to be ignored in the most important election – not just most important for the United States but also most important for the global future of democracy.

There are no benefits to this system, save for the fact that a handful of elected officials in swing states may enjoy outsized attention from both campaigns every four years. The odds of a swing state governor being selected for the vice presidency or getting a cabinet post promise are higher than for similarly situated people in non-battleground states. This is hardly a justification for keeping the system unchanged.

There are at least three distinct deleterious consequences to the presidential selection system’s focus on a diminishing fraction of voters in a few states.

First, the policy preferences of the vast majority of Americans are rejected by Republicans and not adequately pursued by Democrats. These include but are not limited to the desire of most people to see the government lead a victorious battle against climate change, against widening income and wealth inequality, against unaffordable and inadequate health care and against xenophobia and racism. Instead of responding to the wishes of most people, the campaigns and candidates address the desires (and inflame the division) of those in swing states. When the population of closely contested states is less than a quarter of the whole, it is no surprise that the fourth are not representative of the entirety. Moreover, all politics truly is local, as House Speaker Tip O’Neill famously said. Perforce, the swing-state voters care more about their local issues than national issues.

 Second, by taking for granted the outcome in 40 or more states, the two parties do not compete vigorously to drive turnout in those states. As a result participation in democracy in the United States is lower than in most democracies. If the parties competed for every vote everywhere turnout would go up by 10% to 30%, or between 15 to 45 million. The additional voters would more accurately reflect the demographics of the population. Te electorate would be less white and younger. It’s likely that the newer voters would have more faith in our democracy if they participated and their votes mattered to the outcome.

Third, the system creates a huge incentive for the Republican Party to present itself as the party of whites and males, and further as the champion of evangelical white Protestants. That is because by mirroring these constituencies the Republicans are appealing to large constituencies in the swing states of the Great Lakes. (Between 20% and 30% of the likely voters in those states are evangelical Protestant whites, and exit polls in 2016 suggested 80% of white evangelicals voted for the Republican nominee.) The system also appears to reward the Democrats for cultivating a base more heavily weighted toward women and minorities than the total population, and arguably that lures Democrats into ignoring the economic and social concerns of whites in swing states.

The system, in short, has excluded most Americans from full participation in the choice of the president. It has skewed the parties’ policies and popular bases in ways that have exacerbated the social divisions that elections always seek to exploit but governance discovers are obstacles to useful collective action. And the system is racist and sexist in its effects.

 If you agree with me so far, you will agree that the goal of reform is to force the two parties to compete nationally to win a national vote count.

A Constitutional Amendment is obviously difficult because of the supermajority requirements in both Congress and among states in the ratification process. But to pass a useful Amendment it is not necessary that it weight every popular vote equally. It could dictate that every state allocate electors proportionally to the first decimal point, and only the top two parties get electors. Harvard’s Larry Lessig has proposed exactly this meritorious idea. It should be introduced in Congress forthwith. The goal is to get a negotiation going that would attract votes from small state representatives and senators. That system would cause the parties to compete everywhere for the extra tenths of electors, preserve the inequitable weighting of electoral votes for low population states, and still produce 270 or more electors in almost all circumstances.

 The way to guarantee that the top two parties get electors might be ranked choice voting. The two existing parties might well agree on this measure if for no other than self-preservation.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact of course is a reform that obviously would force the parties to compete everywhere for every vote. They would raise more money, and spend along a rising marginal cost curve weighted by likelihood of persuasion until the predictable total reached a clear majority. They would ignore geographic location. (Probably this would be a big boom to local radio, broadcast TV and newspapers in small towns, by the way.)

But the Compact’s problem goes into effect only when it bonds states with 270 electors. It is unlikely to do so unless a few swing or red states switch from winner-take-all to the Compact.

 In all states, between two thirds and three quarters of the electorate tell pollsters that they think the national vote winner should always be president. Professional politicians in swing states, however, tend to like the attention that comes their way from the two parties and their deep pocketed donors every four years. So Democrats and Republicans in elected office in swing states can be inclined to disregard the will of their voters and to oppose the Compact.

In swing and red states, Republicans often hold at least one chamber in the legislature or the governorship and these professional politicians correctly understand that their party’s largely white male base is not sufficient to win a national vote. Their party would have to change to win nationally. Change threatens re-election of incumbents. So they are reluctant to pass the Compact.  

There are two ways to overcome these problems. First, put the Compact on the ballot. This is possible in 26 states. Ideal targets include at least Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Arizona, Utah, and Montana. If the Compact were on the ballot in Ohio in the general election held on November 5, 2019 it would probably pass. The same is true if the Compact were on the ballot in Michigan in November 2020.

The reason this has not happened yet is lack of money for these ballot contests. The cost for getting on the ballot in all five states is about $15 million, and the cost for waging an effective campaign for winning would be about another $50 million in total. The aggregate of $65 million is about two percent of the total that will be spent on the 2020 election.

This number, $65 million, is also less than the amount raised by the Bernie Sanders campaign for president in 2019.

The Compact is much more likely to win a ballot vote in any state than Senator Sanders is to win the nomination of a party to which he does not belong.

The other way the Compact can be passed is to wait for a Democratic landslide to sweep Democratic majorities into control of a surprising number of state legislatures and governorships. Then, push the Compact through before the pendulum heads in the other direction. This is the low cost strategy.

(Also the Republican Party, like the Whigs in the ante-bellum era, might face extinction, and then to change its positions and base. In the past Republicans have supported a national vote method. This is a possible corollary of the Democratic landslide scenario.)

Either way the Compact goes into effect by bonding states with 270 electors, it will face legal challenges funded by those who think that a national vote would lead to the election of presidents who did not serve their special interests. I believe the fate of such challenges depends as much or more on the facts presented as it does on the ingenuity of the legal arguments or the discoveries of legal historians about the intent of the Framers.

 If the Compact has barely obtained the 270 electors and lacks the direct mandate of any voters, then the Republican-tilted federal judiciary will feel empowered to side with their party and find a way to invalidate the Compact. But if the reform garners a big majority of electors and also shows voting strength by winning in a ballot contest in a few states, then I think the judiciary will be much more likely to accept the result.

I also believe that if one election were held in which the parties competed for the national vote and the people all over the country reveled in their new found participation, I think the Supreme Court would be loath to end the new system.

There are at least two ways that the parties could be forced to compete for a national victory without enactment of the Compact.

The first is called pairing. If a state sure to vote Democratic and a state sure to vote Republican each appointed electors who promised to vote for the national winner, then depending on the likely outcome of the election and the number of electors affected by this move, the parties might decide to compete for the national victory.

For example, if New York made this move contingent on Texas taking the same step, the resulting combination of 67 electors promising to vote for the national winner is big enough to cause both parties to seek a national victory.

 As another example, with the hop, skip and jump strategy I outlined earlier the incumbent president is not likely to win more than a bare majority of electors. As it happens, in both North Dakota and the District of Columbia approximately 15,000 signatures suffice to put on the ballot next year a measure that enacts this contingent pairing. It’s not a compact. If both passed, they would be effective for November 2020.

If the incumbent president could not get the three electors of North Dakota merely by winning the plurality in that state, then he would have no clear path to electoral victory. He and his party would have to give serious consideration to pursuing a national vote victory, and of course the Democratic nominee would do the same.

 A second move would be for a single reliable Republican state to appoint electors who promised to vote for the national candidate. Based on the statistical work of my nonprofit, every reliable Republican elector bound to vote for the national winner instead of the state winner reduces the probability of an electoral win for the Republican nominee by two percent unless that Republican wins the national vote. For example, if Ohio’s 18 electors were to vote for the national vote winner instead of the Ohio winner, then the probability of Donald Trump winning the Electoral College would drop by 36% percentage points. If you think it’s fifty-fifty now, that probability would fall to 14%.

But finally, the most important way to boost the chances of the Compact or any national vote reform in any battle through the judiciary is to make it very well known that the Electoral College winner take all system now and all too often in American history has been an instrument of political supremacy for whites and against blacks, Hispanics, and immigrants.

And it also must be understood generally that this same system has produced an overzealous reliance on identity politics as opposed to advocating policies good for the large, troubled middle class.

A widespread understanding of the pernicious effects of the current system for both parties, I believe, will cause the judiciary not to overturn any reforms that move the country to using the national vote for choosing the president.

I believe in the better angels of Americans. Reform of the election process would let that belief triumph over the dark vision of humanity that the current times daily seem to make real and the electoral system sadly encourages.  



Watch Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea on the National Popular Vote

In case you missed it, here is the keynote address from Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea from the Making Every Vote Count conference last week.

Here are her remarks, as prepared:

Thank you, James Glassman, Steve Clemons, Bob Cusack, Matt Shapanka and the rest of the Making Every Vote Count team for helping us have a very important series of conversations on a key evolutionary moment for American democracy. 

This may seem quaint, but I believe that government should be accountable to the people it serves, and all voters should feel like their voices are heard. 

I was elected as Rhode Island’s Secretary of State in 2014. I ran for office because I wanted to make government work for everyone.

As a Latina, as a Puerto Rican, as a woman, I am personally aware that U.S. democracy, while a wonderful contribution to our world, is definitely a work in progress. And, sadly, despite the work done over the past two centuries - that feeling that government can work for everyone is missing in many parts of our country right now.

Except for in a handful of battleground states, most people think their vote doesn’t matter in the presidential race. That’s why we’re seeing a groundswell of support for the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

 Polls show more than two-thirds of Americans want the president to be elected by popular vote. That desire has sparked several efforts over the years, from Dr. John Koza and the National Popular Vote Group, to Common Cause, and of course, Making Every Vote Count.

While these groups may have different versions of how a popular vote system would work, I think we can all agree on why this reform needed. 

For me, one of the most striking arguments for the popular vote comes from our young people. I’ve made engaging young voters one of my key missions as Secretary of State. And we’ve had real success in Rhode Island in getting more young people to vote.

In the 2018 election, Rhode Island saw a 64% increase in 18-to-20-year-old voters. One way we’ve been able to engage young people in voting has been through high school class elections. This is where Rhode Island’s small size is a real asset. I literally get to travel to every corner of the state.

In those travels, I’ve visited dozens of high schools where the Department of State helps students run elections for their class leaders. It’s terrific. We bring in real voting machines and real ballots, just like election day. The kids really get into it too. They give speeches and debate issues with their classmates. You can tell there is a certain joy in seeing their name or their friends’ names on the ballot. They know their vote will really matter. Someone they know will experience the joy of winning and others will feel the sadness of defeat. 

My goal with this program is to have every Rhode Island high schooler personally experience voting before they graduate. That way, they’re familiar with the entire process when it comes time to vote for real. We’re helping set them on a path to civic engagement in adulthood.

But I must tell you, almost every time I talk with these kids, I get a question on the electoral college. They want me to explain how can it be that after so much encouragement to vote, when it comes to President of the United States, their vote “doesn’t matter.” 

Plain and simple, the Electoral College makes it so much harder to help people feel that voting and civic engagement are critical to democracy. And unfortunately, a lot of those kids’ parents feel like their votes don’t matter either. In a deep blue, small state like Rhode Island, people feel ignored by presidential candidates.

That’s why Rhode Island passed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact in 2013. 

And support for the Compact is growing. There are a lot of people in other states that feel the same way. When Rhode Island joined, the Compact accounted for 132 electoral votes. Now it’s up to 196, with another 90 pending. 

So, it’s approaching the 270 electoral votes needed to take effect. That means we’re at an important point right now where we need to do a couple of things:

One: we need to get across the finish line and make the popular vote a reality.

And two: we need to figure out how we’re going to count the votes when that happens.

Today I’ll talk about ways we can break down barriers to getting the Compact passed. And perhaps most importantly, I’ll look at some of conversations we need to have next, to make sure we’re prepared.

I think one of the most important messages when it comes to getting the Compact passed is this - the popular vote is not about partisan politics! This is not about the 2016 election. Support for the Compact goes back way further than 2016.

The Washington Post did a poll on the popular vote in 2007 and found support among ALL voters:

  • 78% of Democrats were in favor;

  • As were 60% of Republicans;

  • And 73% of independents.

There’s even Gallup polling going back to the 1940’s that shows the majority of the public supporting a popular vote.

So, what’s the hold up? Well, for one thing, change is scary. And when it comes to changing how we elect the president, well, that’s really scary for some people.

Here’s something to keep in mind the next time you talk to someone who feels that way – our democracy was designed to change with the times. Just look at the Constitution. It was meant to be a living document. There’s a reason we’ve amended it 27 times and counting. It was designed to evolve as our country grew and changed.

Now, I know critics of the Compact will point out that it’s not a Constitutional amendment. But the “winner-take-all” way we allocate electors isn’t in the Constitution at all. It was adopted later, by 48 states. 

And states are free to do that, of course. They can also enter into other arrangements – like the Compact. Why? Because the Constitution gives states the freedom to change and evolve with the times.

And by the way, we’ve even changed how federal officials get into office before. Until 1913, U.S. Senators were elected by state legislatures, not the people. The 17th Amendment changed that.

So, remind people that our democracy is always evolving. That’s the great thing about it! Those changes have led us to a time of universal suffrage where everyone’s voices are supposed to be heard equally. We have moved from, “All men are created equal,” to “all citizens are created equal.”

Unfortunately, that equality is not reflected under our current system using an Electoral College. A national popular vote is the next logical step in the evolution of American democracy.

That brings us to the question at the heart of this conference – what would be different if America used the popular vote to elect our president, and how would we count the votes?

We may not have all the answers yet, and I know there are different proposals on how the mechanics would work.

I’m not here to criticize or endorse any of those approaches. In fact, I’m here to encourage some of those lively debates and hopefully pull more people into the conversation.

Throughout my life, I’ve found that getting people from different viewpoints and backgrounds to the table is how we get our best policy decisions. As a Secretary of State, I’m right at the crossroads of the national popular vote conversation. I’m called on to support elections that count votes in a fair and impartial way.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact raises some important questions about the duties of my office. Right now, under Rhode Island law, I collect vote totals from all of our cities and towns and add them up. Then I certify the votes for presidential candidates and certify the electors from the winner’s party. I send that information to the Archivist of the United States in Washington, D.C., under federal law.

If the Compact becomes effective, I’ll still be responsible for certifying the votes in my state, of course. But each Secretary of State will also have to include the national count of all votes. That means I’ll have to send Rhode Island’s results to all the other member states, and they’ll have to do the same. 

That sounds simple. But what about non-member states?

 If they’re not bound by the Compact and don’t share their results with member states, how do we make the process work? It’s been proposed that we create a centralized place where non-members would deliver their votes in a timely manner. 

That means after I send my vote tally to the Archivist of the United States, I could then look at what every other Secretary of State has sent. I would add up all the votes for presidential nominees in every state. The one with the biggest number would be the national vote winner.

 I would then name as electors the slate from Rhode Island that’s from the party whose nominee won the national vote, even if that person didn’t win the plurality in Rhode Island. Under the Compact, I’m required to “treat as conclusive an official statement containing the number of popular votes in a state for each presidential slate made by the day established by federal law for making a state’s final determination conclusive.” 

This means that if a non-Compact state makes an “official statement” of its popular vote total, I’m required to accept that total as correct. I then have to count it when determining the national popular vote. 

But the Compact is not binding on non-member states. So, to make this process work without an approved federal mandate, we’re going to need a two-step process. Every Secretary of State will have to provide every other Secretary of State their “official statement” of vote totals in time to look at all the votes and add them up before we appoint the electors.

 The second problem is what to do about ranked choice voting. In other words, what about Maine? How would I determine what counts as a “vote” for president in Maine, where voters rank their preferences for president in order?

Maybe Maine should decide. That’s what the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact requires when it says that I as Secretary must “treat as conclusive an official statement containing the number of popular votes in a state.”

 These were some of the issues that came up at the annual meeting of the National Association of Secretaries of State in New Mexico this past summer. They’re conversations I’m going to keep bringing up, because we need to be ready if and when the Compact becomes effective. That’s also why event like this are so important – to draw more voices from more backgrounds into that decision-making process.

In Rhode Island, we have a long history of thinking carefully about important issues. We were the first colony to declare independence and the last of the 13 states ratify the Constitution.

We thought carefully about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. We think it’s best for all Americans, even if it means a popular Republican winning the national vote could win the electors from a deep blue state like Rhode Island by virtue of the Compact. 

The bottom line is that Rhode Islanders feel ignored under our current system. And many other states feel the same. If all votes counted equally in a presidential race – no matter where people live – candidates would campaign for every vote, everywhere. They would advertise in local media and open “Get Out the Vote” offices everywhere. That would all be a welcome change from the current system where almost all money to promote voting goes to just a few states.

Having more Americans feel like their vote matters would a big win for democracy, no matter who they vote for. Voting is woven into the fabric of our country.

I’m proud that Rhode Island has adopted the Compact, and I encourage other states to do the same. It’s clear that Americans want their voices heard with a national popular vote. Now let’s figure out how to make it happen.



Join us at Harvard Law School for a Conversation on the History and Future of the Electoral College

Here at Making Every Vote Count, we have been talking nonstop about the problems with the Electoral College and the urgent need for reform.  That’s why we hosted the When Every Vote Counts conference in Washington, DC on October 7 (if you missed it, you can watch video of the full event here). 

Next Saturday, October 19, at Harvard Law School in Cambridge, MA, MEVC CEO Reed Hundt will take the show on the road as part of an all-day discussion about the Electoral College with a rock-star panel of lawyers, historians, and activists. The conversation will include an in-depth look at where this crazy institution came from—and all the things that could be done to change it. 

The program is outstanding. Reed will be on an important afternoon panel about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Equal Citizens Founder and Harvard Law Professor Larry Lessig will be there giving a keynote address. So will Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign manager, Stuart Stevens. Among the panelists are Princeton’s Samuel Wang, USC’s Franita Tolson, Election Law Blog’s Rick Hasen, NYU’s Sam Issacharoff, and many more.

The best part is that you can register here for free. If you have any way to get to Boston, please join us.



How Would Campaigns Try to Win the National Popular Vote if That Was the Way to Pick the President?

At a conference aimed at answering this question, carried on C-SPAN, a number of distinguished experts described the many ways the general election, stretching from about June to November every four years, would be different from the current system. Here's a summary, mixing different comments and my own views without attribution and with a little license:

1. Brand. The major parties would create national brands for their candidates. They'd advertise on big national television events, like the Olympics, fall baseball, popular tv shows, and the NFL Sundays. Networks for the first time would get a lot of advertising money. The brands would aim at broad popularity. Extremist views, whether for open borders or open season on immigrants, would be discouraged. 

2. CPM/vote. With every vote worth the same, the major parties would assess the cost of reaching every possible vote regardless of geography. To do so, they'd consider social media ads, local newspaper, local broadcast, local radio, and even billboards and mailings. Like all modern advertising of products, they would aim at assessing the cost of reaching and the ways to appeal to voters on the most individual level possible. For a change, all voters would get attention, and views that appealed to the biggest blocks of voters would be the views espoused by the parties. The parties would change more than the views of the voters would change. As a result, broadly popular views would be endorsed by both parties, such as action against climate change, for gun control, against greater income and wealth inequality, and for cheaper health care. The parties would debate tactics more than premises on these topics. 

3. The result of a cost and issue based analysis would be to find a way to present a pitch to everyone, everywhere. Neither party would take for granted an outcome in any precinct. There'd be no reason to do so. The closer the election, the harder the parties would work to get the attention of the undecided and the possible non-voters, while also building get out the vote systems everywhere in the country. There are several hundred thousand possible Democratic votes in North Dakota no Democratic nominee tries to reach and there are also several hundred thousand Republican votes that in the general election their candidate does not bother soliciting. North Dakota would get attention at last. This is just an example.

4. Turn-out would rise, especially among Latinos and young people, two populations typically ignored and hard to reach in the general election.

5. The winning candidate could truly claim legitimacy.

6. More money would be spent, but as it would shift more toward social advertising and the number of voters would rise then the cost per voter would go down.

7. The parties would use the primary process to increase registration. They would maintain registration records through to the general and use that data to reach voters. Generally participation would rise to registration levels, and therefore voting participation would increase by as much as 20% to 40% in most states.

8. With every vote mattering equally, the parties would argue for better ways to enable voting, such as voting by mail and more access to the polls. The parties would still be motivated to suppress voting for the adversary, but they would limit those efforts to disqualification as opposed to altering methods of voting, because in every precinct both major parties would have votes to get, as opposed to the current system where one party has little to no motivation to battle for votes in as many as 40 states. 

9. The intensity of pursuit of voters in swing states would decline, and the result would be to provide greater continuing support of both political parties by the national party in those and all states. The parties' state structures would rise in importance.

10. Third parties would have a much reduced chance of affecting the outcome, whereas with the current system the much disregarded Nader cost Gore the plurality in Florida in 2000 even though Nader got almost no votes. Indeed, only a national party, built on a broad coalition, could hope to win a national general election if every vote mattered equally. 



Join Us to Find Out What Would Happen if Every Vote Counted

Here at Making Every Vote Count, we talk a lot about the problems with the current presidential selection system. But if we did move to a national popular vote, how would things really change? Where would the candidates go? Where and how would they advertise their policies and platforms to voters? Would the platforms themselves change?

On Monday, October 7, we will discuss these and many more questions at a conference featuring top experts in the field at the Newseum in Washington, DC. Here is the schedule of events:

Panel 1: How will candidates try to win a plurality of votes under a national popular vote?

  • Moderator: Steve Clemons, Editor-at-Large, The Hill

  • Mark Penn, President & Managing Partner, The Stagwell Group & Author, Microtrends.

  • Amanda Iovino, Senior Client Strategist, WPA Intelligence

  • Dr. Samuel Wang, Founder, Princeton Election Consortium

Panel 2: How will candidates' and parties' messaging and platforms change under the NPV?

  • Moderator: Bob Cusack, Editor-in-Chief, The Hill

  • Michael Steele, Former Lt. Governor Of Maryland Former Chair, Republican National Committee 

  • Jesse Wegman, Member, New York Times Editorial Board & Author, Let The People Pick The President

  • Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute & Contributing Editor, The Atlantic

  • Brianna Carmen, Director Of Organizing & Partnerships, Voto Latino

Keynote address

  • Nellie Gorbea, Secretary of State of Rhode Island

Please join us for a networking breakfast starting at 8:30, with programming beginning at 9:00 AM. RSVP here to save your spot!

If you can’t make it in person, the event will be livestreamed on our Facebook page.



Very Different 

On October 7 at the Newseum we will discuss in a conference how different the campaign for president would be if the national vote chose the president. 

The president agrees the two are very different methods. 

As he said this past Tuesday

“If you go by the college, electoral college, that’s a much different race than running popular vote. It’s like the 100-yard dash or the mile. You train differently.”